By Anna Commander0ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads incumbent Senator John Cornyn on the eve of the state's Republican U.S. Senate runoff election, a new poll from Quantus Insights shows on Monday.
The race advanced to a Republican runoff after neither Cornyn nor Paxton won a majority in March, setting up a nationally watched intraparty contest that could signal the GOP’s direction in a critical Sun Belt state while determining who faces Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.
President Donald Trump’s endorsement also looms over the race, as the president threw his support behind Paxton last week.
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Newsweek reached out to Paxton's campaign via email for comment. Cornyn's campaign declined to comment when asked by Newsweek about the new poll.
...What To Know
According to the poll, Paxton has 52.7 percent compared to Cornyn's 43.4 percent, and 3.9 percent are undecided. The survey also finds that 58.9 percent said that Trump's endorsement of Paxton did not impact their vote.
Paxton is ahead among men, women, millennials, Gen Zers and white likely GOP runoff voters. The poll shows Cornyn leads with Hispanics and Asians and is tied with Paxton among Black likely runoff voters. Paxton leads with rural likely voters and Cornyn leads with urban likely voters.
Team Cornyn posted to X on Monday, saying, "Tomorrow, Texas voters will make an important decision about the future of our state. I’m asking for your vote to keep delivering conservative results for Texas families."
Paxton took to X on Monday as well, saying, "Vote with President Trump Tomorrow. The FINAL day to vote in the Republican runoff. If you’ve already voted, text your friends, call your family, and help get 5 more people to the polls. Every single vote matters. Let’s finish strong and WIN THIS! FIND YOUR POLLING LOCATION AT http://VOTETEXAS.GOV"
Trump again commented on the race after making his endorsement, saying Sunday on Truth Social, "TEXAS, REMEMBER! Ken Paxton was a GREAT Attorney General, probably the best in the Country. He was also very loyal to your favorite President, ME, as the Dumocrats played their ultimate game of Weaponization, and failed, BADLY! I LOVE Texas, and WON it all three times, getting, by far, the highest (A Record!) Vote in the History of that Great & Beautiful State. Ken’s opponent was VERY disloyal to me, as President, and didn’t fight hard enough for the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT - VOTER I.D., PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP, NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS (with exceptions for Military, Illness, Disability, or Travel!). What more needs to be said??? Vote for Ken Paxton on Tuesday, HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
Notably, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, will not be endorsing a candidate in the high-stakes GOP Senate runoff election in the Lone Star State, The Dallas Morning News reported earlier this month. Other prominent Republican lawmakers in the state, including Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Senator Ted Cruz, have also avoided backing a candidate, USA Today reports.
The Quantus poll surveyed 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters, with an effective sample size of 936, from May 21 to May 23, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
The runoff election is set for Tuesday.
What Other Polls Show
A new Texas Southern University/YouGov poll shows a very close race between Talarico and either Cornyn or Paxton.
In the survey, Cornyn leads Talarico by 1 percent, 45 percent to 44 percent, and Libertarian Ted Brown has 3 percent.
Paxton and Talarico are tied with 45 percent and Brown has 2 percent in another hypothetical race. Eight percent are undecided in both scenarios. The poll was conducted from April 22 to May 6 among 1,223 likely voters, with a 2.8 percent margin of error.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed Talarico besting both Paxton and Cornyn in potential head-to-head races. Talarico leads Cornyn 44 to 41 percent, and the Democratic nominee also leads Paxton, 46 percent to 41 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percent and was conducted from April 17 to April 20 among 1,018 likely voters.
A poll from co/efficient last month shows Paxton is 1 point behind Cornyn, 43 percent to 44 percent, with 13 percent undecided. In a similar breakdown, 43 percent of women support Paxton versus 44 percent for Cornyn. The tight figures are reversed with men, as 44 percent choose Paxton versus 43 percent siding with Cornyn.
Among Hispanics, Cornyn has a 10-point advantage, with 47 percent of the vote compared to Paxton's 37 percent.
The poll was taken from April 11 to April 14 among 1,143 likely Republican primary voters and has a 3.07 percent margin of error.
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